On February 28, 2026, after joint US–Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [1, 2, 4, 11, 13, 17]. Within days, tanker traffic through the chokepoint—carrying roughly 25% of global oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas [5, 13]—collapsed by 70% [5, 14, 15, 21, 22, 25, 28]. Brent crude climbed to $126 per barrel by March 8 [14, 15, 21], the sharpest energy shock since the 1970s [14, 15, 21, 22, 25, 27, 29]. The question analysts are still parsing: was this purely retaliatory theatre, or did Iran engineer the largest supply disruption in oil-market history [14, 15, 21, 22, 25, 27, 29] with calculated economic ends?
The military narrative is straightforward. Multiple outlets report Iran launched missile and drone strikes against US bases, Israeli territory, and Gulf allies [15, 21, 25, 28, 29], then warned vessels against transit [2, 4]. The Revolutionary Guard carried out at least 21 confirmed attacks on commercial ships between February 28 and March 12 [19, 22], and laid mines in the strait according to CNN [29]. Over 150 vessels anchored outside the waterway to wait out the storm [15, 21, 22]. The traffic data—a near-total halt—aligns with deterrence: make passage prohibitively risky, and the flow stops without needing to sink every tanker.